/ TIME: Almanac 1993 / TIME Almanac 1993.iso / time / caps / 88 / 88capirn.1

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|00000040| ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff | ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff |........|........|
|00000050| 41 75 67 75 73 74 20 31 | 2c 20 31 39 38 38 01 01 |August 1|, 1988..|
|00000060| 4d 49 44 44 4c 45 20 45 | 41 53 54 01 01 4f 6e 20 |MIDDLE E|AST..On |
|00000070| 74 68 65 20 42 72 69 6e | 6b 20 6f 66 20 50 65 61 |the Brin|k of Pea|
|00000080| 63 65 0d 0a 0d 0a 0d 0a | 49 72 61 6e 27 73 20 61 |ce......|Iran's a|
|00000090| 62 72 75 70 74 20 61 63 | 63 65 70 74 61 6e 63 65 |brupt ac|ceptance|
|000000a0| 20 6f 66 20 61 20 63 65 | 61 73 65 2d 66 69 72 65 | of a ce|ase-fire|
|000000b0| 20 6d 61 79 20 65 6e 64 | 20 69 74 73 20 62 6c 6f | may end| its blo|
|000000c0| 6f 64 79 0d 0a 65 69 67 | 68 74 2d 20 79 65 61 72 |ody..eig|ht- year|
|000000d0| 20 77 61 72 20 77 69 74 | 68 20 49 72 61 71 0d 0a | war wit|h Iraq..|
|000000e0| 0d 0a 0d 0a 54 68 65 20 | 66 69 72 73 74 20 68 69 |....The |first hi|
|000000f0| 6e 74 20 63 61 6d 65 20 | 69 6e 20 61 20 73 74 61 |nt came |in a sta|
|00000100| 74 65 6d 65 6e 74 20 66 | 72 6f 6d 20 74 68 65 20 |tement f|rom the |
|00000110| 67 65 6e 65 72 61 6c 20 | 63 6f 6d 6d 61 6e 64 20 |general |command |
|00000120| 6f 66 0d 0a 74 68 65 20 | 49 72 61 6e 69 61 6e 20 |of..the |Iranian |
|00000130| 61 72 6d 65 64 20 66 6f | 72 63 65 73 2c 20 77 68 |armed fo|rces, wh|
|00000140| 69 63 68 20 63 61 6c 6c | 65 64 20 66 6f 72 20 22 |ich call|ed for "|
|00000150| 6e 65 77 20 73 74 61 6e | 63 65 73 20 69 6e 20 6f |new stan|ces in o|
|00000160| 72 64 65 72 0d 0a 74 6f | 20 63 6f 6e 74 69 6e 75 |rder..to| continu|
|00000170| 65 20 74 68 65 20 73 61 | 63 72 65 64 20 64 65 66 |e the sa|cred def|
|00000180| 65 6e 73 65 2e 22 20 20 | 54 68 65 6e 20 63 61 6d |ense."  |Then cam|
|00000190| 65 20 61 20 73 74 61 72 | 74 6c 69 6e 67 20 6d 65 |e a star|tling me|
|000001a0| 73 73 61 67 65 0d 0a 66 | 72 6f 6d 20 49 72 61 6e |ssage..f|rom Iran|
|000001b0| 69 61 6e 20 50 72 65 73 | 69 64 65 6e 74 20 41 6c |ian Pres|ident Al|
|000001c0| 69 20 4b 68 61 6d 65 6e | 65 69 20 74 6f 20 55 6e |i Khamen|ei to Un|
|000001d0| 69 74 65 64 20 4e 61 74 | 69 6f 6e 73 0d 0a 53 65 |ited Nat|ions..Se|
|000001e0| 63 72 65 74 61 72 79 2d | 47 65 6e 65 72 61 6c 20 |cretary-|General |
|000001f0| 4a 61 76 69 65 72 20 50 | 65 72 65 7a 20 64 65 20 |Javier P|erez de |
|00000200| 43 75 65 6c 6c 61 72 2c | 20 64 65 63 6c 61 72 69 |Cuellar,| declari|
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|00000220| 6c 69 6e 67 6e 65 73 73 | 20 74 6f 20 61 62 69 64 |lingness| to abid|
|00000230| 65 20 62 79 20 55 2e 4e | 2e 20 52 65 73 6f 6c 75 |e by U.N|. Resolu|
|00000240| 74 69 6f 6e 20 35 39 38 | 2c 20 74 68 65 20 6d 65 |tion 598|, the me|
|00000250| 61 73 75 72 65 20 63 61 | 6c 6c 69 6e 67 0d 0a 66 |asure ca|lling..f|
|00000260| 6f 72 20 61 20 63 65 61 | 73 65 2d 66 69 72 65 20 |or a cea|se-fire |
|00000270| 69 6e 20 74 68 65 20 65 | 69 67 68 74 2d 79 65 61 |in the e|ight-yea|
|00000280| 72 2d 6f 6c 64 20 77 61 | 72 20 62 65 74 77 65 65 |r-old wa|r betwee|
|00000290| 6e 20 49 72 61 6e 20 61 | 6e 64 0d 0a 49 72 61 71 |n Iran a|nd..Iraq|
|000002a0| 2e 20 53 74 69 6c 6c 2c | 20 6d 75 63 68 20 6f 66 |. Still,| much of|
|000002b0| 20 74 68 65 20 77 6f 72 | 6c 64 20 72 65 6d 61 69 | the wor|ld remai|
|000002c0| 6e 65 64 20 73 6b 65 70 | 74 69 63 61 6c 2c 20 61 |ned skep|tical, a|
|000002d0| 77 61 72 65 20 74 68 61 | 74 0d 0a 41 79 61 74 75 |ware tha|t..Ayatu|
|000002e0| 6c 6c 61 68 20 52 75 68 | 6f 6c 6c 61 68 20 4b 68 |llah Ruh|ollah Kh|
|000002f0| 6f 6d 65 69 6e 69 20 68 | 61 64 20 70 65 72 73 6f |omeini h|ad perso|
|00000300| 6e 61 6c 6c 79 20 76 6f | 77 65 64 20 74 6f 20 63 |nally vo|wed to c|
|00000310| 6f 6e 74 69 6e 75 65 20 | 74 68 65 0d 0a 66 69 67 |ontinue |the..fig|
|00000320| 68 74 69 6e 67 20 22 77 | 69 74 68 20 74 68 65 20 |hting "w|ith the |
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|00000340| 6f 64 20 69 6e 20 6d 79 | 20 62 6f 64 79 2e 22 20 |od in my| body." |
|00000350| 20 46 69 6e 61 6c 6c 79 | 2c 0d 0a 4b 68 6f 6d 65 | Finally|,..Khome|
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|000003b0| 74 73 20 68 61 74 65 64 | 20 6e 65 69 67 68 62 6f |ts hated| neighbo|
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|000003d0| 0d 0a 6c 61 79 20 64 6f | 77 6e 20 61 72 6d 73 2e |..lay do|wn arms.|
|000003e0| 0d 0a 0d 0a 22 4d 61 6b | 69 6e 67 20 74 68 69 73 |...."Mak|ing this|
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|00000400| 72 65 20 64 65 61 64 6c | 79 20 74 68 61 6e 20 64 |re deadl|y than d|
|00000410| 72 69 6e 6b 69 6e 67 20 | 70 6f 69 73 6f 6e 2c 22 |rinking |poison,"|
|00000420| 0d 0a 54 65 68 72 61 6e | 20 72 61 64 69 6f 20 71 |..Tehran| radio q|
|00000430| 75 6f 74 65 64 20 68 69 | 6d 20 61 73 20 73 61 79 |uoted hi|m as say|
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|00000450| 64 20 6d 79 73 65 6c 66 | 20 74 6f 20 47 6f 64 27 |d myself| to God'|
|00000460| 73 0d 0a 77 69 6c 6c 20 | 61 6e 64 20 64 72 61 6e |s..will |and dran|
|00000470| 6b 20 74 68 69 73 20 64 | 72 69 6e 6b 20 66 6f 72 |k this d|rink for|
|00000480| 20 68 69 73 20 73 61 74 | 69 73 66 61 63 74 69 6f | his sat|isfactio|
|00000490| 6e 2e 22 0d 0a 0d 0a 43 | 6f 75 6c 64 20 74 68 65 |n."....C|ould the|
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|000004c0| 6c 69 6f 6e 20 6c 69 76 | 65 73 2c 20 64 65 76 61 |lion liv|es, deva|
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|000004f0| 20 74 68 65 20 6c 61 72 | 67 65 73 74 20 55 2e 53 | the lar|gest U.S|
|00000500| 2e 20 6e 61 76 61 6c 20 | 62 75 69 6c 64 75 70 20 |. naval |buildup |
|00000510| 73 69 6e 63 65 0d 0a 57 | 6f 72 6c 64 20 57 61 72 |since..W|orld War|
|00000520| 20 49 49 20 66 69 6e 61 | 6c 6c 79 20 62 65 20 6f | II fina|lly be o|
|00000530| 76 65 72 3f 20 20 4e 6f | 74 20 71 75 69 74 65 2e |ver?  No|t quite.|
|00000540| 20 41 20 64 61 79 20 61 | 66 74 65 72 20 49 72 61 | A day a|fter Ira|
|00000550| 6e 0d 0a 6e 6f 74 69 66 | 69 65 64 20 74 68 65 20 |n..notif|ied the |
|00000560| 55 2e 4e 2e 20 6f 66 20 | 69 74 73 20 64 65 63 69 |U.N. of |its deci|
|00000570| 73 69 6f 6e 2c 20 49 72 | 61 71 20 62 6f 6d 62 65 |sion, Ir|aq bombe|
|00000580| 64 20 61 6e 20 49 72 61 | 6e 69 61 6e 0d 0a 6e 75 |d an Ira|nian..nu|
|00000590| 63 6c 65 61 72 2d 70 6f | 77 65 72 20 66 61 63 69 |clear-po|wer faci|
|000005a0| 6c 69 74 79 20 61 74 20 | 74 68 65 20 67 75 6c 66 |lity at |the gulf|
|000005b0| 20 63 69 74 79 20 6f 66 | 20 42 75 73 68 69 72 65 | city of| Bushire|
|000005c0| 2e 20 54 68 72 65 65 20 | 64 61 79 73 0d 0a 6c 61 |. Three |days..la|
|000005d0| 74 65 72 2c 20 42 61 67 | 68 64 61 64 20 6c 61 75 |ter, Bag|hdad lau|
|000005e0| 6e 63 68 65 64 20 6e 65 | 77 20 61 74 74 61 63 6b |nched ne|w attack|
|000005f0| 73 20 61 6c 6f 6e 67 20 | 74 68 65 20 37 33 30 2d |s along |the 730-|
|00000600| 6d 69 6c 65 20 62 6f 72 | 64 65 72 0d 0a 62 65 74 |mile bor|der..bet|
|00000610| 77 65 65 6e 20 74 68 65 | 20 74 77 6f 20 63 6f 75 |ween the| two cou|
|00000620| 6e 74 72 69 65 73 20 69 | 6e 20 61 6e 20 6f 62 76 |ntries i|n an obv|
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|00000640| 67 61 69 6e 20 6d 6f 72 | 65 0d 0a 6c 65 76 65 72 |gain mor|e..lever|
|00000650| 61 67 65 20 69 6e 20 63 | 65 61 73 65 2d 66 69 72 |age in c|ease-fir|
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|00000670| 49 6e 20 72 65 73 70 6f | 6e 73 65 2c 20 54 65 68 |In respo|nse, Teh|
|00000680| 72 61 6e 20 72 61 64 69 | 6f 0d 0a 62 72 6f 61 64 |ran radi|o..broad|
|00000690| 63 61 73 74 20 61 6e 20 | 61 70 70 65 61 6c 20 66 |cast an |appeal f|
|000006a0| 6f 72 20 61 62 6c 65 2d | 62 6f 64 69 65 64 20 6d |or able-|bodied m|
|000006b0| 65 6e 20 74 6f 20 67 6f | 20 74 6f 20 74 68 65 20 |en to go| to the |
|000006c0| 66 72 6f 6e 74 2e 0d 0a | 0d 0a 59 65 74 20 69 66 |front...|..Yet if|
|000006d0| 20 4b 68 6f 6d 65 69 6e | 69 27 73 20 73 65 6e 74 | Khomein|i's sent|
|000006e0| 69 6d 65 6e 74 73 20 77 | 65 72 65 20 67 65 6e 75 |iments w|ere genu|
|000006f0| 69 6e 65 2d 2d 61 6e 64 | 20 41 72 61 62 20 61 6e |ine--and| Arab an|
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|00000710| 76 65 72 73 20 67 65 6e | 65 72 61 6c 6c 79 20 62 |vers gen|erally b|
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|00000750| 77 61 72 64 20 65 6e 64 | 69 6e 67 20 74 68 65 20 |ward end|ing the |
|00000760| 63 6f 6e 66 6c 69 63 74 | 2e 20 43 61 6c 6c 69 6e |conflict|. Callin|
|00000770| 67 20 74 68 65 20 49 72 | 61 6e 69 61 6e 20 64 65 |g the Ir|anian de|
|00000780| 63 69 73 69 6f 6e 0d 0a | 61 20 6d 61 6a 6f 72 20 |cision..|a major |
|00000790| 62 72 65 61 6b 74 68 72 | 6f 75 67 68 2c 22 20 74 |breakthr|ough," t|
|000007a0| 68 65 20 55 2e 53 2e 20 | 53 74 61 74 65 20 44 65 |he U.S. |State De|
|000007b0| 70 61 72 74 6d 65 6e 74 | 20 73 61 69 64 20 74 68 |partment| said th|
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|00000820| 65 20 55 2e 53 2e 20 68 | 61 73 20 67 6f 6f 64 20 |e U.S. h|as good |
|00000830| 72 65 61 73 6f 6e 20 74 | 6f 20 63 68 65 65 72 20 |reason t|o cheer |
|00000840| 74 68 65 20 63 65 61 73 | 65 2d 66 69 72 65 2c 20 |the ceas|e-fire, |
|00000850| 70 61 72 74 69 63 75 6c | 61 72 6c 79 0d 0a 69 6e |particul|arly..in|
|00000860| 20 6c 69 67 68 74 20 6f | 66 20 68 6f 77 20 69 74 | light o|f how it|
|00000870| 20 63 61 6d 65 20 61 62 | 6f 75 74 2e 20 41 20 6d | came ab|out. A m|
|00000880| 61 6a 6f 72 20 67 6f 61 | 6c 20 6f 66 20 55 2e 53 |ajor goa|l of U.S|
|00000890| 2e 20 70 6f 6c 69 63 79 | 20 69 6e 0d 0a 74 68 65 |. policy| in..the|
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|000008b0| 6f 20 70 72 65 76 65 6e | 74 20 54 65 68 72 61 6e |o preven|t Tehran|
|000008c0| 20 66 72 6f 6d 20 73 65 | 69 7a 69 6e 67 20 64 6f | from se|izing do|
|000008d0| 6d 69 6e 61 6e 63 65 20 | 6f 66 0d 0a 74 68 65 20 |minance |of..the |
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|00000940| 68 65 20 63 6c 65 61 72 | 2d 63 75 74 20 6c 6f 73 |he clear|-cut los|
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|00000980| 64 20 57 61 72 20 49 49 | 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a 54 68 65 |d War II|.....The|
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|000009b0| 6f 74 20 63 6f 6d 65 20 | 77 69 74 68 6f 75 74 20 |ot come |without |
|000009c0| 61 20 70 72 69 63 65 2c | 0d 0a 6d 6f 6e 65 74 61 |a price,|..moneta|
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|00000a60| 74 20 61 74 74 65 6d 70 | 74 20 62 79 20 74 68 65 |t attemp|t by the|
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|00000aa0| 69 6e 20 4c 65 62 61 6e | 6f 6e 20 77 69 74 68 20 |in Leban|on with |
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|00000ac0| 49 6e 20 31 39 38 37 2c | 20 6c 61 72 67 65 6c 79 |In 1987,| largely|
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|00000b90| 20 55 2e 53 2e 20 6e 61 | 76 61 6c 20 70 72 6f 74 | U.S. na|val prot|
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|00000d60| 55 2e 53 2e 0d 0a 66 6f | 72 65 69 67 6e 2d 70 6f |U.S...fo|reign-po|
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|00000d80| 0a 0d 0a 55 2e 4e 2e 20 | 6f 66 66 69 63 69 61 6c |...U.N. |official|
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|00000e00| 41 6b 62 61 72 20 56 65 | 6c 61 79 61 74 69 20 61 |Akbar Ve|layati a|
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|00001d70| 65 6a 69 20 28 76 6f 6c | 75 6e 74 65 65 72 73 29 |eji (vol|unteers)|
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|00001da0| 79 20 47 75 61 72 64 73 | 20 68 61 73 0d 0a 6c 61 |y Guards| has..la|
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|00001df0| 22 54 68 65 72 65 27 73 | 20 6e 6f 20 68 65 72 6f |"There's| no hero|
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|00001e60| 4a 61 63 6b 73 6f 6e 2c | 20 61 6e 64 0d 0a 74 68 |Jackson,| and..th|
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|00001ea0| 22 0d 0a 0d 0a 54 68 65 | 20 61 63 63 69 64 65 6e |"....The| acciden|
|00001eb0| 74 61 6c 20 55 2e 53 2e | 20 64 6f 77 6e 69 6e 67 |tal U.S.| downing|
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|00001ed0| 69 72 62 75 73 20 6f 6e | 20 4a 75 6c 79 20 33 2c |irbus on| July 3,|
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|000037a0| 68 65 72 20 61 6e 20 65 | 6e 64 20 74 6f 20 74 68 |her an e|nd to th|
|000037b0| 65 20 67 75 6c 66 20 77 | 61 72 0d 0a 77 69 6c 6c |e gulf w|ar..will|
|000037c0| 20 61 6c 6c 6f 77 20 69 | 74 20 74 6f 20 72 65 64 | allow i|t to red|
|000037d0| 75 63 65 20 69 74 73 20 | 66 6f 72 6d 69 64 61 62 |uce its |formidab|
|000037e0| 6c 65 20 6e 61 76 61 6c | 20 62 75 69 6c 64 75 70 |le naval| buildup|
|000037f0| 20 69 6e 20 74 68 65 0d | 0a 61 72 65 61 2e 20 54 | in the.|.area. T|
|00003800| 68 65 20 63 75 72 72 65 | 6e 74 20 55 2e 53 2e 20 |he curre|nt U.S. |
|00003810| 66 6c 6f 74 69 6c 6c 61 | 20 6e 75 6d 62 65 72 73 |flotilla| numbers|
|00003820| 20 32 36 20 73 68 69 70 | 73 20 61 6e 64 20 63 6f | 26 ship|s and co|
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|00003840| 64 20 24 31 34 30 20 6d | 69 6c 6c 69 6f 6e 20 61 |d $140 m|illion a|
|00003850| 20 79 65 61 72 20 74 6f | 20 6d 61 69 6e 74 61 69 | year to| maintai|
|00003860| 6e 2e 20 54 68 65 20 55 | 2e 53 2e 20 68 61 73 20 |n. The U|.S. has |
|00003870| 6e 6f 0d 0a 69 6e 74 65 | 6e 74 69 6f 6e 20 6f 66 |no..inte|ntion of|
|00003880| 20 63 6f 6d 70 6c 65 74 | 65 6c 79 20 65 6e 64 69 | complet|ely endi|
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|000038a0| 73 65 6e 63 65 20 69 6e | 20 74 68 65 20 67 75 6c |sence in| the gul|
|000038b0| 66 2c 0d 0a 77 68 69 63 | 68 20 67 6f 65 73 20 62 |f,..whic|h goes b|
|000038c0| 61 63 6b 20 6e 65 61 72 | 6c 79 20 34 30 20 79 65 |ack near|ly 40 ye|
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|000038e0| 70 61 72 74 69 61 6c 20 | 70 75 6c 6c 62 61 63 6b |partial |pullback|
|000038f0| 20 6f 66 0d 0a 63 75 72 | 72 65 6e 74 20 66 6f 72 | of..cur|rent for|
|00003900| 63 65 73 20 77 69 6c 6c | 20 70 72 6f 62 61 62 6c |ces will| probabl|
|00003910| 79 20 64 65 70 65 6e 64 | 20 6f 6e 20 61 20 72 65 |y depend| on a re|
|00003920| 61 73 73 75 72 69 6e 67 | 20 70 65 72 69 6f 64 20 |assuring| period |
|00003930| 6f 66 0d 0a 71 75 69 65 | 74 2e 20 42 75 74 2c 20 |of..quie|t. But, |
|00003940| 73 61 69 64 20 53 65 63 | 72 65 74 61 72 79 20 6f |said Sec|retary o|
|00003950| 66 20 53 74 61 74 65 20 | 47 65 6f 72 67 65 20 53 |f State |George S|
|00003960| 68 75 6c 74 7a 2c 20 77 | 68 6f 20 72 65 63 65 69 |hultz, w|ho recei|
|00003970| 76 65 64 0d 0a 6e 65 77 | 73 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 |ved..new|s of the|
|00003980| 20 49 72 61 6e 69 61 6e | 20 6f 66 66 65 72 20 77 | Iranian| offer w|
|00003990| 68 69 6c 65 20 76 69 73 | 69 74 69 6e 67 20 54 6f |hile vis|iting To|
|000039a0| 6b 79 6f 2c 20 22 69 66 | 20 74 68 65 20 70 72 6f |kyo, "if| the pro|
|000039b0| 62 6c 65 6d 73 0d 0a 67 | 6f 20 61 77 61 79 2c 20 |blems..g|o away, |
|000039c0| 74 68 65 20 73 68 69 70 | 20 70 72 65 73 65 6e 63 |the ship| presenc|
|000039d0| 65 20 77 69 6c 6c 20 67 | 6f 20 64 6f 77 6e 2e 22 |e will g|o down."|
|000039e0| 0d 0a 0d 0a 41 64 6d 69 | 6e 69 73 74 72 61 74 69 |....Admi|nistrati|
|000039f0| 6f 6e 20 6f 66 66 69 63 | 69 61 6c 73 20 71 75 69 |on offic|ials qui|
|00003a00| 63 6b 6c 79 20 63 6c 61 | 69 6d 65 64 20 74 68 61 |ckly cla|imed tha|
|00003a10| 74 20 49 72 61 6e 27 73 | 20 70 6f 6c 69 63 79 0d |t Iran's| policy.|
|00003a20| 0a 72 65 76 65 72 73 61 | 6c 20 76 69 6e 64 69 63 |.reversa|l vindic|
|00003a30| 61 74 65 64 20 74 68 65 | 20 64 65 63 69 73 69 6f |ated the| decisio|
|00003a40| 6e 20 62 79 20 74 68 65 | 20 55 2e 53 2e 20 61 6e |n by the| U.S. an|
|00003a50| 64 20 6f 74 68 65 72 20 | 57 65 73 74 65 72 6e 0d |d other |Western.|
|00003a60| 0a 6e 61 76 61 6c 20 70 | 6f 77 65 72 73 20 74 6f |.naval p|owers to|
|00003a70| 20 62 75 69 6c 64 20 75 | 70 20 74 68 65 69 72 20 | build u|p their |
|00003a80| 67 75 6c 66 20 66 6c 65 | 65 74 73 2e 20 49 72 61 |gulf fle|ets. Ira|
|00003a90| 71 27 73 20 70 65 72 66 | 6f 72 6d 61 6e 63 65 0d |q's perf|ormance.|
|00003aa0| 0a 6f 6e 20 74 68 65 20 | 67 72 6f 75 6e 64 20 64 |.on the |ground d|
|00003ab0| 6f 75 62 74 6c 65 73 73 | 20 68 61 64 20 6d 6f 72 |oubtless| had mor|
|00003ac0| 65 20 74 6f 20 64 6f 20 | 77 69 74 68 20 6c 61 73 |e to do |with las|
|00003ad0| 74 20 77 65 65 6b 27 73 | 20 64 65 63 69 73 69 6f |t week's| decisio|
|00003ae0| 6e 0d 0a 74 68 61 6e 20 | 61 6e 79 74 68 69 6e 67 |n..than |anything|
|00003af0| 20 74 68 61 74 20 68 61 | 70 70 65 6e 65 64 20 61 | that ha|ppened a|
|00003b00| 74 20 73 65 61 2c 20 62 | 75 74 20 74 68 65 20 70 |t sea, b|ut the p|
|00003b10| 72 65 73 65 6e 63 65 20 | 6f 66 20 57 65 73 74 65 |resence |of Weste|
|00003b20| 72 6e 0d 0a 6e 61 76 69 | 65 73 20 64 69 64 20 70 |rn..navi|es did p|
|00003b30| 72 6f 76 69 64 65 20 61 | 20 73 68 6f 77 20 6f 66 |rovide a| show of|
|00003b40| 20 72 65 73 6f 6c 76 65 | 20 64 69 72 65 63 74 65 | resolve| directe|
|00003b50| 64 20 61 67 61 69 6e 73 | 74 20 49 52 61 6e 69 61 |d agains|t IRania|
|00003b60| 6e 0d 0a 61 67 67 72 65 | 73 73 69 76 65 6e 65 73 |n..aggre|ssivenes|
|00003b70| 73 2e 20 49 6e 20 74 68 | 65 20 65 6e 64 2c 20 73 |s. In th|e end, s|
|00003b80| 61 69 64 20 54 68 6f 6d | 61 73 20 4d 63 4e 61 75 |aid Thom|as McNau|
|00003b90| 67 68 65 72 2c 20 61 20 | 67 75 6c 66 2d 73 74 61 |gher, a |gulf-sta|
|00003ba0| 74 65 0d 0a 65 78 70 65 | 72 74 20 61 74 20 74 68 |te..expe|rt at th|
|00003bb0| 65 20 42 72 6f 6f 6b 69 | 6e 67 73 20 49 6e 73 74 |e Brooki|ngs Inst|
|00003bc0| 69 74 75 74 69 6f 6e 20 | 69 6e 20 57 61 73 68 69 |itution |in Washi|
|00003bd0| 6e 67 74 6f 6e 2c 20 74 | 68 65 0d 0a 22 69 6e 74 |ngton, t|he.."int|
|00003be0| 65 72 65 73 74 73 20 6f | 66 20 49 72 61 6e 20 61 |erests o|f Iran a|
|00003bf0| 6e 64 20 49 72 61 71 20 | 61 6e 64 20 65 76 65 72 |nd Iraq |and ever|
|00003c00| 79 62 6f 64 79 20 65 6c | 73 65 20 6a 75 73 74 20 |ybody el|se just |
|00003c10| 66 65 6c 6c 20 69 6e 74 | 6f 0d 0a 70 6c 61 63 65 |fell int|o..place|
|00003c20| 2e 22 20 20 46 6f 72 20 | 55 2e 4e 2e 20 6d 65 64 |."  For |U.N. med|
|00003c30| 69 61 74 6f 72 73 20 69 | 6e 20 74 68 65 20 63 6f |iators i|n the co|
|00003c40| 6d 69 6e 67 20 6d 6f 6e | 74 68 73 2c 20 74 68 65 |ming mon|ths, the|
|00003c50| 20 63 68 61 6c 6c 65 6e | 67 65 0d 0a 77 69 6c 6c | challen|ge..will|
|00003c60| 20 62 65 20 74 6f 20 6b | 65 65 70 20 74 68 65 6d | be to k|eep them|
|00003c70| 20 74 68 65 72 65 2e 0d | 0a 0d 0a 2d 2d 42 79 20 | there..|...--By |
|00003c80| 57 69 6c 6c 69 61 6d 20 | 52 2e 20 44 6f 65 72 6e |William |R. Doern|
|00003c90| 65 72 2e 20 52 65 70 6f | 72 74 65 64 20 62 79 20 |er. Repo|rted by |
|00003ca0| 44 65 61 6e 20 46 69 73 | 63 68 65 72 2f 43 61 69 |Dean Fis|cher/Cai|
|00003cb0| 72 6f 20 61 6e 64 0d 0a | 42 72 75 63 65 20 76 61 |ro and..|Bruce va|
|00003cc0| 6e 20 56 6f 6f 72 73 74 | 2f 57 61 73 68 69 6e 67 |n Voorst|/Washing|
|00003cd0| 74 6f 6e 0d 0a 0d 0a 52 | 45 53 4f 4c 55 54 49 4f |ton....R|ESOLUTIO|
|00003ce0| 4e 20 35 39 38 0d 0a 0d | 0a 54 68 65 20 74 69 74 |N 598...|.The tit|
|00003cf0| 6c 65 20 6d 61 79 20 62 | 65 20 70 75 72 65 20 62 |le may b|e pure b|
|00003d00| 75 72 65 61 75 63 72 61 | 74 65 73 65 2c 20 62 75 |ureaucra|tese, bu|
|00003d10| 74 20 55 2e 4e 2e 20 52 | 65 73 6f 6c 75 74 69 6f |t U.N. R|esolutio|
|00003d20| 6e 20 35 39 38 0d 0a 70 | 72 6f 76 69 64 65 73 20 |n 598..p|rovides |
|00003d30| 74 68 65 20 6f 75 74 6c | 69 6e 65 20 66 6f 72 20 |the outl|ine for |
|00003d40| 61 6e 20 65 6e 64 20 74 | 68 65 20 77 61 72 2e 20 |an end t|he war. |
|00003d50| 49 74 73 20 6d 61 69 6e | 20 70 6f 69 6e 74 73 3a |Its main| points:|
|00003d60| 0d 0a 0d 0a 43 45 41 53 | 45 2d 46 49 52 45 3a 20 |....CEAS|E-FIRE: |
|00003d70| 20 54 68 65 20 55 2e 4e | 2e 20 69 6e 76 69 74 65 | The U.N|. invite|
|00003d80| 64 20 74 68 65 20 66 6f | 72 65 69 67 6e 20 6d 69 |d the fo|reign mi|
|00003d90| 6e 69 73 74 65 72 73 20 | 6f 66 20 49 72 61 6e 20 |nisters |of Iran |
|00003da0| 61 6e 64 0d 0a 49 72 61 | 71 20 74 6f 20 4e 65 77 |and..Ira|q to New|
|00003db0| 20 59 6f 72 6b 20 43 69 | 74 79 20 74 68 69 73 20 | York Ci|ty this |
|00003dc0| 77 65 65 6b 20 74 6f 20 | 64 69 73 63 75 73 73 20 |week to |discuss |
|00003dd0| 61 20 74 72 75 63 65 20 | 61 67 72 65 65 6d 65 6e |a truce |agreemen|
|00003de0| 74 2e 0d 0a 54 68 65 20 | 55 2e 4e 2e 20 69 73 20 |t...The |U.N. is |
|00003df0| 61 6c 73 6f 20 64 69 73 | 70 61 74 63 68 69 6e 67 |also dis|patching|
|00003e00| 20 61 20 6d 69 6c 69 74 | 61 72 79 20 74 65 61 6d | a milit|ary team|
|00003e10| 20 74 6f 20 54 65 68 72 | 61 6e 20 61 6e 64 0d 0a | to Tehr|an and..|
|00003e20| 42 61 67 68 64 61 64 20 | 74 6f 20 62 65 67 69 6e |Baghdad |to begin|
|00003e30| 20 61 72 72 61 6e 67 69 | 6e 67 20 74 68 65 20 64 | arrangi|ng the d|
|00003e40| 65 74 61 69 6c 73 2e 20 | 54 68 65 20 55 2e 4e 2e |etails. |The U.N.|
|00003e50| 20 70 6c 61 6e 73 20 74 | 6f 0d 0a 73 74 61 74 69 | plans t|o..stati|
|00003e60| 6f 6e 20 63 65 61 73 65 | 2d 66 69 72 65 20 6f 62 |on cease|-fire ob|
|00003e70| 73 65 72 76 65 72 73 20 | 61 74 20 74 68 65 20 77 |servers |at the w|
|00003e80| 61 72 20 66 72 6f 6e 74 | 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a 54 52 4f |ar front|.....TRO|
|00003e90| 4f 50 20 57 49 54 48 44 | 52 41 57 41 4c 53 3a 20 |OP WITHD|RAWALS: |
|00003ea0| 20 4c 61 72 67 65 6c 79 | 20 6d 6f 6f 74 2c 20 73 | Largely| moot, s|
|00003eb0| 69 6e 63 65 20 6e 65 69 | 74 68 65 72 20 73 69 64 |ince nei|ther sid|
|00003ec0| 65 20 6e 6f 77 20 68 6f | 6c 64 73 0d 0a 61 6e 79 |e now ho|lds..any|
|00003ed0| 20 73 69 67 6e 69 66 69 | 63 61 6e 74 20 70 61 72 | signifi|cant par|
|00003ee0| 74 73 20 6f 66 20 74 68 | 65 20 6f 74 68 65 72 27 |ts of th|e other'|
|00003ef0| 73 20 74 65 72 72 69 74 | 6f 72 79 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a |s territ|ory.....|
|00003f00| 50 52 49 53 4f 4e 45 52 | 20 45 58 43 48 41 4e 47 |PRISONER| EXCHANG|
|00003f10| 45 3a 20 20 49 72 61 6e | 20 68 61 64 20 35 30 2c |E:  Iran| had 50,|
|00003f20| 30 30 30 20 49 72 61 71 | 69 20 50 4f 57 73 2c 20 |000 Iraq|i POWs, |
|00003f30| 61 6e 64 20 49 72 61 71 | 20 68 6f 6c 64 73 0d 0a |and Iraq| holds..|
|00003f40| 32 30 2c 30 30 30 20 49 | 72 61 6e 69 61 6e 73 2e |20,000 I|ranians.|
|00003f50| 0d 0a 0d 0a 46 4f 52 4d | 41 4c 20 54 41 4c 4b 53 |....FORM|AL TALKS|
|00003f60| 3a 20 20 4f 6e 63 65 20 | 61 20 64 61 74 65 20 69 |:  Once |a date i|
|00003f70| 73 20 73 65 74 20 66 6f | 72 20 61 20 74 72 75 63 |s set fo|r a truc|
|00003f80| 65 2c 20 55 2e 4e 2e 0d | 0a 53 65 63 72 65 74 61 |e, U.N..|.Secreta|
|00003f90| 72 79 2d 47 65 6e 65 72 | 61 6c 20 4a 61 76 69 65 |ry-Gener|al Javie|
|00003fa0| 72 20 50 65 72 65 7a 20 | 64 65 20 43 75 65 6c 6c |r Perez |de Cuell|
|00003fb0| 61 72 20 77 69 6c 6c 20 | 74 72 79 20 74 6f 20 6f |ar will |try to o|
|00003fc0| 70 65 6e 0d 0a 6e 65 67 | 6f 74 69 61 74 69 6f 6e |pen..neg|otiation|
|00003fd0| 73 20 66 6f 72 20 61 20 | 63 6f 6d 70 72 65 68 65 |s for a |comprehe|
|00003fe0| 6e 73 69 76 65 20 70 65 | 61 63 65 20 74 72 65 61 |nsive pe|ace trea|
|00003ff0| 74 79 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a 41 | 53 53 49 47 4e 49 4e 47 |ty.....A|SSIGNING|
|00004000| 20 42 4c 41 4d 45 3a 20 | 20 41 20 55 2e 4e 2e 20 | BLAME: | A U.N. |
|00004010| 63 6f 6d 6d 69 73 73 69 | 6f 6e 20 77 69 6c 6c 20 |commissi|on will |
|00004020| 62 65 20 65 73 74 61 62 | 6c 69 73 68 65 64 20 74 |be estab|lished t|
|00004030| 6f 0d 0a 64 65 74 65 72 | 6d 69 6e 65 20 77 68 6f |o..deter|mine who|
|00004040| 20 73 74 61 72 74 65 64 | 20 74 68 65 20 77 61 72 | started| the war|
|00004050| 2e 20 49 72 61 6e 20 74 | 68 75 73 20 64 72 6f 70 |. Iran t|hus drop|
|00004060| 73 20 69 74 73 20 72 65 | 66 75 73 61 6c 20 74 6f |s its re|fusal to|
|00004070| 0d 0a 73 74 6f 70 20 66 | 69 67 68 74 69 6e 67 20 |..stop f|ighting |
|00004080| 75 6e 74 69 6c 20 49 72 | 61 71 20 69 73 20 6c 61 |until Ir|aq is la|
|00004090| 62 65 6c 65 64 20 74 68 | 65 20 61 67 67 72 65 73 |beled th|e aggres|
|000040a0| 73 6f 72 20 61 6e 64 20 | 50 72 65 73 69 64 65 6e |sor and |Presiden|
|000040b0| 74 0d 0a 53 61 64 64 61 | 6d 20 48 75 73 73 65 69 |t..Sadda|m Hussei|
|000040c0| 6e 20 69 73 20 6f 75 73 | 74 65 64 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a |n is ous|ted.....|
|000040d0| 52 45 43 4f 4e 53 54 52 | 55 43 54 49 4f 4e 3a 20 |RECONSTR|UCTION: |
|000040e0| 20 41 4e 6f 74 68 65 72 | 20 55 2e 4e 2e 20 63 6f | ANother| U.N. co|
|000040f0| 6d 6d 69 73 73 69 6f 6e | 20 77 69 6c 6c 20 62 65 |mmission| will be|
|00004100| 20 73 65 74 20 75 70 20 | 74 6f 0d 0a 73 74 75 64 | set up |to..stud|
|00004110| 79 20 69 6e 74 65 72 6e | 61 74 69 6f 6e 61 6c 20 |y intern|ational |
|00004120| 61 69 64 20 66 6f 72 20 | 70 6f 73 74 77 61 72 20 |aid for |postwar |
|00004130| 72 65 63 6f 6e 73 74 72 | 75 63 74 69 6f 6e 20 6f |reconstr|uction o|
|00004140| 66 20 62 6f 74 68 0d 0a | 63 6f 75 6e 74 72 69 65 |f both..|countrie|
|00004150| 73 2e 20 54 68 65 20 61 | 72 72 61 6e 67 65 6d 65 |s. The a|rrangeme|
|00004160| 6e 74 20 66 61 6c 6c 73 | 20 73 68 6f 72 74 20 6f |nt falls| short o|
|00004170| 66 20 49 72 61 6e 27 73 | 20 64 65 6d 61 6e 64 20 |f Iran's| demand |
|00004180| 74 68 61 74 0d 0a 49 72 | 61 71 20 70 61 79 20 77 |that..Ir|aq pay w|
|00004190| 61 72 20 72 65 70 61 72 | 61 74 69 6f 6e 73 2e 0d |ar repar|ations..|
|000041a0| 0a 0d 0a 4f 69 6c 3a 20 | 20 57 69 6e 2c 20 4c 6f |...Oil: | Win, Lo|
|000041b0| 73 65 20 6f 72 20 44 72 | 61 77 3f 0d 0a 0d 0a 50 |se or Dr|aw?....P|
|000041c0| 72 65 64 69 63 74 69 6e | 67 20 74 68 65 20 66 75 |redictin|g the fu|
|000041d0| 74 75 72 65 20 69 73 20 | 61 6c 77 61 79 73 20 72 |ture is |always r|
|000041e0| 69 73 6b 79 2c 20 62 75 | 74 20 77 68 65 6e 20 69 |isky, bu|t when i|
|000041f0| 74 20 63 6f 6d 65 73 20 | 74 6f 20 74 68 65 0d 0a |t comes |to the..|
|00004200| 6f 69 6c 20 62 75 73 69 | 6e 65 73 73 2c 20 69 74 |oil busi|ness, it|
|00004210| 20 6f 66 74 65 6e 20 73 | 65 65 6d 73 20 64 6f 77 | often s|eems dow|
|00004220| 6e 72 69 67 68 74 20 69 | 6d 70 6f 73 73 69 62 6c |nright i|mpossibl|
|00004230| 65 2e 20 57 68 6f 20 63 | 6f 75 6c 64 0d 0a 68 61 |e. Who c|ould..ha|
|00004240| 76 65 20 66 6f 72 65 73 | 65 65 6e 20 74 68 65 20 |ve fores|een the |
|00004250| 73 68 6f 63 6b 69 6e 67 | 20 6f 69 6c 2d 70 72 69 |shocking| oil-pri|
|00004260| 63 65 20 68 69 6b 65 73 | 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 20 |ce hikes| of the |
|00004270| 31 39 37 30 73 3f 20 20 | 41 6e 64 0d 0a 74 68 65 |1970s?  |And..the|
|00004280| 6e 20 70 72 6f 70 68 65 | 73 69 65 64 20 62 6f 74 |n prophe|sied bot|
|00004290| 74 6f 6d 2d 6f 66 2d 74 | 68 65 2d 62 61 72 72 65 |tom-of-t|he-barre|
|000042a0| 6c 20 63 75 74 73 20 69 | 6e 20 74 68 65 20 31 39 |l cuts i|n the 19|
|000042b0| 38 30 73 3f 20 20 4e 6f | 0d 0a 77 6f 6e 64 65 72 |80s?  No|..wonder|
|000042c0| 20 74 68 65 20 70 6f 73 | 73 69 62 69 6c 69 74 79 | the pos|sibility|
|000042d0| 20 6f 66 20 61 20 63 65 | 61 73 65 2d 66 69 72 65 | of a ce|ase-fire|
|000042e0| 20 62 65 74 77 65 65 6e | 20 49 72 61 6e 20 61 6e | between| Iran an|
|000042f0| 64 20 49 72 61 71 0d 0a | 74 68 72 65 77 20 6f 69 |d Iraq..|threw oi|
|00004300| 6c 20 74 72 61 64 65 72 | 73 20 69 6e 74 6f 20 61 |l trader|s into a|
|00004310| 20 66 72 65 6e 7a 79 20 | 6c 61 73 74 20 77 65 65 | frenzy |last wee|
|00004320| 6b 20 61 73 20 74 68 65 | 79 20 74 72 69 65 64 20 |k as the|y tried |
|00004330| 74 6f 0d 0a 64 69 76 69 | 6e 65 20 77 68 65 74 68 |to..divi|ne wheth|
|00004340| 65 72 20 74 68 65 20 63 | 6f 73 74 20 6f 66 20 63 |er the c|ost of c|
|00004350| 72 75 64 65 20 77 6f 75 | 6c 64 20 75 6c 74 69 6d |rude wou|ld ultim|
|00004360| 61 74 65 6c 79 20 67 6f | 20 75 70 20 6f 72 20 64 |ately go| up or d|
|00004370| 6f 77 6e 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a | 46 6f 72 20 6e 6f 77 2c |own.....|For now,|
|00004380| 20 61 74 20 6c 65 61 73 | 74 2c 20 74 72 61 64 65 | at leas|t, trade|
|00004390| 72 73 20 61 72 65 20 62 | 65 74 74 69 6e 67 20 74 |rs are b|etting t|
|000043a0| 68 61 74 20 6f 69 6c 20 | 70 72 6f 64 75 63 74 69 |hat oil |producti|
|000043b0| 6f 6e 20 77 69 6c 6c 0d | 0a 64 72 6f 70 20 61 6e |on will.|.drop an|
|000043c0| 64 20 70 72 69 63 65 73 | 20 77 69 6c 6c 20 72 69 |d prices| will ri|
|000043d0| 73 65 2e 20 52 65 61 73 | 6f 6e 3a 20 20 62 6f 74 |se. Reas|on:  bot|
|000043e0| 68 20 49 72 61 6e 20 61 | 6e 64 20 49 72 61 71 20 |h Iran a|nd Iraq |
|000043f0| 68 61 76 65 0d 0a 70 75 | 6d 70 65 64 20 61 73 20 |have..pu|mped as |
|00004400| 6d 75 63 68 20 6f 69 6c | 20 61 73 20 70 6f 73 73 |much oil| as poss|
|00004410| 69 62 6c 65 20 74 6f 20 | 70 61 79 20 66 6f 72 20 |ible to |pay for |
|00004420| 74 68 65 69 72 20 68 6f | 6c 79 20 77 61 72 2c 0d |their ho|ly war,.|
|00004430| 0a 68 65 6c 70 69 6e 67 | 20 64 65 70 72 65 73 73 |.helping| depress|
|00004440| 20 70 72 69 63 65 73 2e | 20 70 65 61 63 65 20 63 | prices.| peace c|
|00004450| 6f 75 6c 64 20 65 6c 69 | 6d 69 6e 61 74 65 20 74 |ould eli|minate t|
|00004460| 68 65 20 67 6c 75 74 2c | 20 74 68 65 0d 0a 74 68 |he glut,| the..th|
|00004470| 65 6f 72 79 20 67 6f 65 | 73 2c 20 62 79 20 62 72 |eory goe|s, by br|
|00004480| 69 6e 67 69 6e 67 20 62 | 61 63 6b 20 74 69 67 68 |inging b|ack tigh|
|00004490| 74 65 72 20 70 72 6f 64 | 75 63 74 69 6f 6e 20 71 |ter prod|uction q|
|000044a0| 75 6f 74 61 73 20 66 72 | 6f 6d 0d 0a 49 72 61 6e |uotas fr|om..Iran|
|000044b0| 2c 20 49 72 61 71 20 61 | 6e 64 20 74 68 65 20 6f |, Iraq a|nd the o|
|000044c0| 74 68 65 72 20 6d 65 6d | 62 65 72 73 20 6f 66 20 |ther mem|bers of |
|000044d0| 74 68 65 20 4f 72 67 61 | 6e 69 7a 61 74 69 6f 6e |the Orga|nization|
|000044e0| 20 6f 66 0d 0a 50 65 74 | 72 6f 6c 65 75 6d 20 45 | of..Pet|roleum E|
|000044f0| 78 70 6f 72 74 69 6e 67 | 20 43 6f 75 6e 74 72 69 |xporting| Countri|
|00004500| 65 73 2e 20 53 75 63 68 | 20 74 68 69 6e 6b 69 6e |es. Such| thinkin|
|00004510| 67 20 63 61 75 73 65 64 | 20 74 68 65 20 70 72 69 |g caused| the pri|
|00004520| 63 65 0d 0a 6f 66 20 6f | 69 6c 20 66 75 74 75 72 |ce..of o|il futur|
|00004530| 65 73 20 74 6f 20 73 65 | 65 73 61 77 20 76 69 6f |es to se|esaw vio|
|00004540| 6c 65 6e 74 6c 79 20 6c | 61 73 74 20 77 65 65 6b |lently l|ast week|
|00004550| 2e 20 54 68 65 20 70 72 | 69 63 65 20 6f 66 20 61 |. The pr|ice of a|
|00004560| 0d 0a 62 61 72 72 65 6c | 20 6f 66 20 57 65 73 74 |..barrel| of West|
|00004570| 20 54 65 78 61 73 20 63 | 72 75 64 65 20 6a 75 6d | Texas c|rude jum|
|00004580| 70 65 64 20 38 34 20 63 | 65 6e 74 73 2c 20 74 6f |ped 84 c|ents, to|
|00004590| 20 24 31 35 2e 37 30 20 | 77 68 65 6e 20 49 72 61 | $15.70 |when Ira|
|000045a0| 6e 0d 0a 66 69 72 73 74 | 20 70 72 6f 70 6f 73 65 |n..first| propose|
|000045b0| 64 20 70 65 61 63 65 2c | 20 74 68 65 6e 20 70 6c |d peace,| then pl|
|000045c0| 75 6e 67 65 64 20 34 37 | 20 63 65 6e 74 73 20 70 |unged 47| cents p|
|000045d0| 65 72 20 62 62 6c 2e 20 | 74 68 65 20 6e 65 78 74 |er bbl. |the next|
|000045e0| 0d 0a 64 61 79 2c 20 61 | 66 74 65 72 20 49 72 61 |..day, a|fter Ira|
|000045f0| 71 69 20 66 69 67 68 74 | 65 72 73 20 62 6f 6d 62 |qi fight|ers bomb|
|00004600| 65 64 20 49 72 61 6e 69 | 61 6e 20 74 61 72 67 65 |ed Irani|an targe|
|00004610| 74 73 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a 45 | 76 65 6e 20 69 66 20 61 |ts.....E|ven if a|
|00004620| 20 63 65 61 73 65 2d 66 | 69 72 65 20 74 61 6b 65 | cease-f|ire take|
|00004630| 73 20 68 6f 6c 64 2c 20 | 68 6f 77 65 76 65 72 2c |s hold, |however,|
|00004640| 20 74 68 65 20 6c 6f 6e | 67 2d 74 65 72 6d 20 6f | the lon|g-term o|
|00004650| 75 74 6c 6f 6f 6b 0d 0a | 66 6f 72 20 70 65 74 72 |utlook..|for petr|
|00004660| 6f 6c 65 75 6d 20 70 72 | 69 63 65 73 20 69 73 20 |oleum pr|ices is |
|00004670| 66 61 72 20 66 72 6f 6d | 20 73 65 74 74 6c 65 64 |far from| settled|
|00004680| 2e 20 45 63 6f 6e 6f 6d | 69 73 74 73 20 65 73 74 |. Econom|ists est|
|00004690| 69 6d 61 74 65 0d 0a 74 | 68 61 74 20 74 68 65 20 |imate..t|hat the |
|000046a0| 74 77 6f 20 63 6f 75 6e | 74 72 69 65 73 20 77 69 |two coun|tries wi|
|000046b0| 6c 6c 20 6e 65 65 64 20 | 61 20 74 6f 74 61 6c 20 |ll need |a total |
|000046c0| 6f 66 20 61 74 20 6c 65 | 61 73 74 20 24 33 30 30 |of at le|ast $300|
|000046d0| 0d 0a 62 69 6c 6c 69 6f | 6e 20 74 6f 20 72 65 62 |..billio|n to reb|
|000046e0| 75 69 6c 64 20 74 68 65 | 69 72 20 72 61 76 61 67 |uild the|ir ravag|
|000046f0| 65 64 20 65 63 6f 6e 6f | 6d 69 65 73 2c 20 74 77 |ed econo|mies, tw|
|00004700| 69 63 65 20 74 68 65 69 | 72 20 61 6e 6e 75 61 6c |ice thei|r annual|
|00004710| 0d 0a 67 72 6f 73 73 20 | 6e 61 74 69 6f 6e 61 6c |..gross |national|
|00004720| 20 70 72 6f 64 75 63 74 | 73 2e 20 54 68 65 20 73 | product|s. The s|
|00004730| 69 6d 70 6c 65 73 74 20 | 73 6f 6c 75 74 69 6f 6e |implest |solution|
|00004740| 20 69 73 20 74 6f 20 73 | 65 6c 6c 20 6d 6f 72 65 | is to s|ell more|
|00004750| 0d 0a 6f 69 6c 2e 20 41 | 6e 61 6c 79 73 74 73 20 |..oil. A|nalysts |
|00004760| 70 72 65 64 69 63 74 20 | 74 68 61 74 20 49 72 61 |predict |that Ira|
|00004770| 71 20 63 6f 75 6c 64 20 | 6e 65 61 72 6c 79 20 64 |q could |nearly d|
|00004780| 6f 75 62 6c 65 20 69 74 | 73 20 63 75 72 72 65 6e |ouble it|s curren|
|00004790| 74 0d 0a 70 72 6f 64 75 | 63 74 69 6f 6e 20 6f 66 |t..produ|ction of|
|000047a0| 20 32 2e 34 20 6d 69 6c | 6c 69 6f 6e 20 61 20 64 | 2.4 mil|lion a d|
|000047b0| 61 79 20 62 79 20 31 39 | 39 30 3b 20 49 72 61 6e |ay by 19|90; Iran|
|000047c0| 27 73 20 64 61 69 6c 79 | 20 63 61 70 61 63 69 74 |'s daily| capacit|
|000047d0| 79 0d 0a 6d 69 67 68 74 | 20 6a 75 6d 70 20 66 72 |y..might| jump fr|
|000047e0| 6f 6d 20 32 2e 35 20 6d | 69 6c 6c 69 6f 6e 20 74 |om 2.5 m|illion t|
|000047f0| 6f 20 36 20 6d 69 6c 6c | 69 6f 6e 2e 20 49 66 20 |o 6 mill|ion. If |
|00004800| 74 68 65 79 20 70 75 6d | 70 20 74 68 61 74 0d 0a |they pum|p that..|
|00004810| 6d 75 63 68 20 6f 69 6c | 20 74 6f 20 70 61 79 20 |much oil| to pay |
|00004820| 66 6f 72 20 72 65 63 6f | 6e 73 74 72 75 63 74 69 |for reco|nstructi|
|00004830| 6f 6e 2c 20 70 72 69 63 | 65 73 20 77 69 6c 6c 20 |on, pric|es will |
|00004840| 70 6c 75 6e 67 65 2e 0d | 0a 0d 0a 4f 72 20 77 69 |plunge..|...Or wi|
|00004850| 6c 6c 20 74 68 65 79 3f | 20 20 22 49 72 61 6e 20 |ll they?|  "Iran |
|00004860| 61 6e 64 20 49 72 61 71 | 20 6d 69 67 68 74 20 73 |and Iraq| might s|
|00004870| 75 72 70 72 69 73 65 20 | 65 76 65 72 79 6f 6e 65 |urprise |everyone|
|00004880| 20 61 6e 64 20 61 67 72 | 65 65 0d 0a 74 6f 20 6b | and agr|ee..to k|
|00004890| 65 65 70 20 61 20 6c 69 | 64 20 6f 6e 20 70 72 6f |eep a li|d on pro|
|000048a0| 64 75 63 74 69 6f 6e 2c | 22 20 63 61 75 74 69 6f |duction,|" cautio|
|000048b0| 6e 73 20 50 65 74 65 72 | 20 42 65 75 74 65 6c 2c |ns Peter| Beutel,|
|000048c0| 20 61 6e 0d 0a 6f 69 6c | 2d 6d 61 72 6b 65 74 20 | an..oil|-market |
|000048d0| 61 6e 61 6c 79 73 74 20 | 66 6f 72 20 74 68 65 20 |analyst |for the |
|000048e0| 4d 61 6e 68 61 74 74 61 | 6e 20 63 6f 6d 6d 6f 64 |Manhatta|n commod|
|000048f0| 69 74 69 65 73 20 66 69 | 72 6d 20 45 6c 64 65 72 |ities fi|rm Elder|
|00004900| 73 0d 0a 46 75 74 75 72 | 65 73 2c 20 49 6e 63 2e |s..Futur|es, Inc.|
|00004910| 20 41 6e 6f 74 68 65 72 | 20 76 61 72 69 61 62 6c | Another| variabl|
|00004920| 65 20 69 73 20 53 61 75 | 64 69 20 41 72 61 62 69 |e is Sau|di Arabi|
|00004930| 61 27 73 20 73 74 72 61 | 74 65 67 79 2c 20 73 61 |a's stra|tegy, sa|
|00004940| 79 73 0d 0a 47 2e 20 48 | 65 6e 72 79 20 53 63 68 |ys..G. H|enry Sch|
|00004950| 75 6c 65 72 2c 20 61 6e | 20 65 6e 65 72 67 79 20 |uler, an| energy |
|00004960| 73 70 65 63 69 61 6c 69 | 73 74 20 61 74 20 74 68 |speciali|st at th|
|00004970| 65 20 43 65 6e 74 65 72 | 20 6f 75 72 0d 0a 53 74 |e Center| our..St|
|00004980| 72 61 74 65 67 69 63 20 | 61 6e 64 20 49 6e 74 65 |rategic |and Inte|
|00004990| 72 6e 61 74 69 6f 6e 61 | 6c 20 53 74 75 64 69 65 |rnationa|l Studie|
|000049a0| 73 20 69 6e 20 57 61 73 | 68 69 6e 67 74 6f 6e 2e |s in Was|hington.|
|000049b0| 20 53 63 68 75 6c 65 72 | 0d 0a 70 6f 69 6e 74 73 | Schuler|..points|
|000049c0| 20 6f 75 74 20 74 68 61 | 74 20 69 6e 20 31 39 38 | out tha|t in 198|
|000049d0| 37 2c 20 77 68 65 6e 20 | 6f 69 6c 20 73 6f 6c 64 |7, when |oil sold|
|000049e0| 20 66 6f 72 20 24 32 30 | 20 70 65 72 20 62 62 6c | for $20| per bbl|
|000049f0| 2e 2c 20 52 69 79 61 64 | 68 0d 0a 69 6e 63 72 65 |., Riyad|h..incre|
|00004a00| 61 73 65 64 20 69 74 73 | 20 70 72 6f 64 75 63 74 |ased its| product|
|00004a10| 69 6f 6e 20 74 6f 20 64 | 72 69 76 65 20 64 6f 77 |ion to d|rive dow|
|00004a20| 6e 20 74 68 65 20 70 72 | 69 63 65 20 61 6e 64 20 |n the pr|ice and |
|00004a30| 64 65 70 72 69 76 65 0d | 0a 49 72 61 6e 20 6f 66 |deprive.|.Iran of|
|00004a40| 20 69 74 73 20 77 61 72 | 20 63 68 65 73 74 2e 20 | its war| chest. |
|00004a50| 22 42 75 74 20 6f 6e 63 | 65 20 74 68 65 20 77 61 |"But onc|e the wa|
|00004a60| 72 20 69 73 20 6f 76 65 | 72 2c 20 74 68 65 6e 20 |r is ove|r, then |
|00004a70| 74 68 65 0d 0a 53 61 75 | 64 69 73 20 64 6f 6e 27 |the..Sau|dis don'|
|00004a80| 74 20 68 61 76 65 20 61 | 6e 79 20 72 65 61 73 6f |t have a|ny reaso|
|00004a90| 6e 20 74 6f 20 6b 65 65 | 70 20 70 72 69 63 65 73 |n to kee|p prices|
|00004aa0| 20 64 6f 77 6e 2c 22 20 | 68 65 20 73 61 79 73 2e | down," |he says.|
|00004ab0| 0d 0a 53 63 68 75 6c 65 | 72 27 73 20 70 72 65 64 |..Schule|r's pred|
|00004ac0| 69 63 74 69 6f 6e 3a 20 | 20 6f 69 6c 20 63 6f 75 |iction: | oil cou|
|00004ad0| 6c 64 20 6a 75 6d 70 20 | 74 6f 20 24 32 32 20 74 |ld jump |to $22 t|
|00004ae0| 6f 20 24 32 34 20 70 65 | 72 20 62 62 6c 2e 20 69 |o $24 pe|r bbl. i|
|00004af0| 6e 0d 0a 61 20 79 65 61 | 72 2e 0d 0a 0d 0a 41 20 |n..a yea|r.....A |
|00004b00| 68 61 6e 64 66 75 6c 20 | 6f 66 20 69 6e 64 75 73 |handful |of indus|
|00004b10| 74 72 79 20 61 6e 61 6c | 79 73 74 73 20 6d 61 69 |try anal|ysts mai|
|00004b20| 6e 74 61 69 6e 20 74 68 | 61 74 20 61 20 63 65 61 |ntain th|at a cea|
|00004b30| 73 65 2d 66 69 72 65 20 | 77 69 6c 6c 0d 0a 6d 61 |se-fire |will..ma|
|00004b40| 6b 65 20 6c 69 74 74 6c | 65 20 64 69 66 66 65 72 |ke littl|e differ|
|00004b50| 65 6e 63 65 20 69 6e 20 | 70 72 69 63 65 73 2e 20 |ence in |prices. |
|00004b60| 57 6f 72 6c 64 20 64 65 | 6d 61 6e 64 20 66 6f 72 |World de|mand for|
|00004b70| 20 63 72 75 64 65 20 69 | 73 0d 0a 66 6c 61 74 2c | crude i|s..flat,|
|00004b80| 20 74 68 65 79 20 61 72 | 67 75 65 2c 20 61 6e 64 | they ar|gue, and|
|00004b90| 20 4f 50 45 43 2c 20 77 | 68 69 63 68 20 63 6f 6e | OPEC, w|hich con|
|00004ba0| 74 72 6f 6c 73 20 6f 6e | 6c 79 20 33 37 25 20 6f |trols on|ly 37% o|
|00004bb0| 66 20 74 68 65 0d 0a 6d | 61 72 6b 65 74 2c 20 69 |f the..m|arket, i|
|00004bc0| 6e 20 63 6f 6e 74 72 61 | 73 74 20 74 6f 20 35 36 |n contra|st to 56|
|00004bd0| 25 20 69 6e 20 31 39 37 | 33 2c 20 6d 61 79 20 66 |% in 197|3, may f|
|00004be0| 69 6e 64 20 69 74 20 64 | 69 66 66 69 63 75 6c 74 |ind it d|ifficult|
|00004bf0| 20 74 6f 0d 0a 70 75 73 | 68 20 70 72 69 63 65 73 | to..pus|h prices|
|00004c00| 20 6d 75 63 68 20 68 69 | 67 68 65 72 2e 20 22 49 | much hi|gher. "I|
|00004c10| 66 20 74 68 65 20 77 61 | 72 20 65 6e 64 73 2c 20 |f the wa|r ends, |
|00004c20| 74 68 65 20 67 65 6f 70 | 6f 6c 69 74 69 63 73 20 |the geop|olitics |
|00004c30| 6f 66 0d 0a 6f 69 6c 20 | 61 72 65 20 63 68 61 6e |of..oil |are chan|
|00004c40| 67 65 64 20 67 72 65 61 | 74 6c 79 2c 22 20 73 61 |ged grea|tly," sa|
|00004c50| 79 73 20 44 61 6e 69 65 | 6c 20 59 65 72 67 69 6e |ys Danie|l Yergin|
|00004c60| 2c 20 70 72 65 73 69 64 | 65 6e 74 20 6f 66 0d 0a |, presid|ent of..|
|00004c70| 43 61 6d 62 72 69 64 67 | 65 20 45 6e 65 72 67 79 |Cambridg|e Energy|
|00004c80| 20 52 65 73 65 61 72 63 | 68 20 41 73 73 6f 63 69 | Researc|h Associ|
|00004c90| 61 74 65 73 20 69 6e 20 | 43 61 6d 62 72 69 64 67 |ates in |Cambridg|
|00004ca0| 65 2c 20 4d 61 73 73 2e | 20 22 42 75 74 0d 0a 74 |e, Mass.| "But..t|
|00004cb0| 68 65 20 70 72 69 63 65 | 20 6d 61 79 20 6e 6f 74 |he price| may not|
|00004cc0| 20 62 65 20 63 68 61 6e | 67 65 64 20 6e 65 61 72 | be chan|ged near|
|00004cd0| 6c 79 20 61 73 20 6d 75 | 63 68 2e 22 20 54 68 65 |ly as mu|ch." The|
|00004ce0| 20 70 6f 73 73 69 62 69 | 6c 69 74 79 0d 0a 6f 66 | possibi|lity..of|
|00004cf0| 20 70 65 61 63 65 20 69 | 6e 20 74 68 65 20 50 65 | peace i|n the Pe|
|00004d00| 72 73 69 61 6e 20 47 75 | 6c 66 20 73 65 65 6d 73 |rsian Gu|lf seems|
|00004d10| 20 74 6f 20 68 61 76 65 | 20 6c 65 66 74 20 74 68 | to have| left th|
|00004d20| 65 20 70 65 74 72 6f 6c | 65 75 6d 0d 0a 63 6f 6d |e petrol|eum..com|
|00004d30| 6d 75 6e 69 74 79 20 61 | 73 20 62 65 77 69 6c 64 |munity a|s bewild|
|00004d40| 65 72 65 64 20 61 73 20 | 74 68 65 20 72 65 73 74 |ered as |the rest|
|00004d50| 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 20 | 77 6f 72 6c 64 2e 20 1a | of the |world. .|
|00004d60| 0d 0a 0d 0a             |                         |....    |        |
+--------+-------------------------+-------------------------+--------+--------+